One missing employee can cost a restaurant $5,000 in three months. NRA Chief Economist *Dr. Chad Moutray* breaks down the real cost of understaffing and where the restaurant labor market stands in 2026.
The labor market has cooled from the _Great Resignation_ into the _Great Stay,_ and restaurant staffing has gotten easier on paper: understaffing dropped from 78% of operators in 2021 to 22% in 2025. But 22% is still money walking out the door. In Part 1 of our three-part series on the National Restaurant Association's 2026 Hiring & Staffing report, Chad joins Ricardo Belmar and Casey Golden to put hard numbers on what an empty shift costs, why restaurant turnover runs 122%, and why demographics will keep the restaurant labor market tight for a decade.
If you run a restaurant, manage restaurant staffing, or just want to understand where hospitality hiring is headed, this one's for you.
đź‘Ť Like this video, subscribe, and hit the bell. Part 2 covers how long a new hire takes to pay off, and it will change how you think about your first 90 days with new team members.
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*The Retail Razor: Data Blades S2:E10*
*Released on July 10, 2026*
*Resource Links*
*HIRING & STAFFING How Onboarding, Managers, & Technology Drive Restaurant ROI.* https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/research-insight-workforce-hiring-staffing/
*State of the Restaurant Industry  2026.* https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/state-of-the-industry/
*Guest info*
*Dr Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE,* https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadmoutray/
_Chief Economist & Sr Vice President of Industry Research & Knowledge_
*National Restaurant Association,* https://www.restaurant.org/
Chad Moutray is senior vice president for research & knowledge and chief economist at the National Restaurant Association, where he leads economic analysis, data-driven insights, and thought leadership for business leaders in the restaurant and foodservice industry. A recognized expert on economic trends, he frequently shares his perspectives through professional presentations, media interviews, and industry reports.
Dr. Moutray is an adjunct professor at George Washington University, where he teaches econometrics in the M.S. in the applied economics program. He has held leadership roles in several professional organizations, including serving as chair of the Conference of Business Economists and as a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. He is also a past president and chairman of the National Economists Club, the Washington, D.C. chapter of NABE. In 2026, he will begin serving on the board of trustees of the John Leland Center for Theological Studies in Arlington, VA.
*Chapters*
00:00 Teaser
00:37 S2E10 Intro
03:02 Welcome, Dr Chad Moutray!
04:24 Labor Market Snapshot
06:34 Seasonality and Consumer Demand
08:20 Restaurants as Training Ground
09:09 Why Hospitality Skills Matter
13:29 Understaffing Trends Today
15:08 Turnover and Onboarding Reality
16:45 True Cost of Empty Shifts
18:31 Tech That Speeds Hiring
20:01 Service as Competitive Edge
20:56 Key Takeaways and Demographics
24:11 Show Close
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