A new restaurant hire costs you money until day 32. For a manager, 72. Dr. Chad Moutray, Chief Economist at the National Restaurant Association, on restaurant employee retention and the first 90 days.
Part 2 of our 3-part Hiring & Staffing mini-series digs into the data behind restaurant employee retention and restaurant manager retention - when a hire becomes “net positive” (31.8 days for hourly, 72.2 for managers), why the first 30 to 90 days is the highest-turnover window, and why people don’t quit the job, they quit the manager. If you run a restaurant, this is the math behind every schedule you build.
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Join 2,000 retail leaders at *RetailClub AI Festival, September 22–24* in Huntington Beach. Dive deep into how AI is reshaping retail while soaking up the sun at a fully outdoor, beachside venue. Decision-makers from retailers and brands can attend with free tickets and up to $1,250 in travel reimbursement. Head here to learn more: https://retailclub.com/retail-razor-podcast
*The Retail Razor: Data Blades S2:E11*
*Released on July 17, 2026*
*Resource Links*
*HIRING & STAFFING How Onboarding, Managers, & Technology Drive Restaurant ROI.* https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/research-insight-workforce-hiring-staffing/
*State of the Restaurant Industry  2026.* https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/state-of-the-industry/
*Guest info*
*Dr Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE,* https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadmoutray/
_Chief Economist & Sr Vice President of Industry Research & Knowledge_
*National Restaurant Association,* https://www.restaurant.org/
Chad Moutray is senior vice president for research & knowledge and chief economist at the National Restaurant Association, where he leads economic analysis, data-driven insights, and thought leadership for business leaders in the restaurant and foodservice industry. A recognized expert on economic trends, he frequently shares his perspectives through professional presentations, media interviews, and industry reports.
Dr. Moutray is an adjunct professor at George Washington University, where he teaches econometrics in the M.S. in the applied economics program. He has held leadership roles in several professional organizations, including serving as chair of the Conference of Business Economists and as a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. He is also a past president and chairman of the National Economists Club, the Washington, D.C. chapter of NABE. In 2026, he will begin serving on the board of trustees of the John Leland Center for Theological Studies in Arlington, VA.
*Chapters*
00:00 Teaser
00:30 Show Intro
02:41 Welcome Back, Dr Chad Moutray!
03:47 What Net Positive Means
05:28 The 32 and 72 Day Math
07:00 Managers Make or Break Teams
08:41 Surviving the First 90 Days
10:14 Leadership Traits That Retain
12:33 Where to Invest First
13:26 Onboarding Ideas and Scavenger Hunt
15:01 Show Close
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